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@neural-trader/portfolio

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Portfolio management for Neural Trader - optimization, rebalancing, risk parity

Package Exports

  • @neural-trader/portfolio
  • @neural-trader/portfolio/index.js

This package does not declare an exports field, so the exports above have been automatically detected and optimized by JSPM instead. If any package subpath is missing, it is recommended to post an issue to the original package (@neural-trader/portfolio) to support the "exports" field. If that is not possible, create a JSPM override to customize the exports field for this package.

Readme

@neural-trader/portfolio

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Advanced portfolio management and optimization for Neural Trader with Rust-powered performance. Manage positions, track P&L, and optimize allocations using modern portfolio theory including Markowitz mean-variance optimization, Black-Litterman model, and risk parity strategies.

Features

  • Position Management: Real-time tracking with cost basis, P&L, and mark-to-market accounting
  • Portfolio Optimization: Markowitz mean-variance, Black-Litterman, risk parity, and max Sharpe
  • Automatic Rebalancing: Transaction cost-aware rebalancing with configurable thresholds
  • Risk Metrics: Portfolio VaR, CVaR, beta, correlation analysis, and factor exposure
  • Performance Attribution: Analyze contribution by position, sector, and factor
  • Efficient Frontier: Calculate and visualize optimal risk-return trade-offs
  • Constraints Support: Position limits, sector constraints, and factor exposures
  • Rust Performance: Lightning-fast optimization algorithms with BLAS acceleration

Installation

npm install @neural-trader/portfolio @neural-trader/core @neural-trader/risk

Quick Start

import { PortfolioManager, PortfolioOptimizer } from '@neural-trader/portfolio';
import type { Position } from '@neural-trader/core';

// Create portfolio manager
const portfolio = new PortfolioManager(100000); // $100k initial cash

// Update positions
await portfolio.updatePosition('AAPL', 100, 150.00);
await portfolio.updatePosition('MSFT', 50, 300.00);
await portfolio.updatePosition('GOOGL', 30, 140.00);

// Get portfolio summary
const cash = await portfolio.getCash();
const totalValue = await portfolio.getTotalValue();
const pnl = await portfolio.getTotalPnl();

console.log(`Cash: $${cash.toLocaleString()}`);
console.log(`Total Value: $${totalValue.toLocaleString()}`);
console.log(`P&L: $${pnl.toLocaleString()} (${((pnl / 100000) * 100).toFixed(2)}%)`);

// Optimize portfolio
const optimizer = new PortfolioOptimizer({ riskFreeRate: 0.02 });

const symbols = ['AAPL', 'MSFT', 'GOOGL', 'AMZN', 'TSLA'];
const expectedReturns = [0.12, 0.10, 0.15, 0.11, 0.20]; // Annual returns
const covarianceMatrix = [
  [0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.02, 0.03],
  [0.02, 0.03, 0.01, 0.02, 0.02],
  [0.01, 0.01, 0.05, 0.01, 0.02],
  [0.02, 0.02, 0.01, 0.04, 0.02],
  [0.03, 0.02, 0.02, 0.02, 0.08]
].flat();

const optimization = await optimizer.optimize(
  symbols,
  expectedReturns,
  covarianceMatrix
);

console.log('\n=== Optimal Portfolio ===');
console.log(`Expected Return: ${(optimization.expectedReturn * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
console.log(`Portfolio Risk: ${(optimization.risk * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
console.log(`Sharpe Ratio: ${optimization.sharpeRatio.toFixed(2)}`);
console.log('\nAllocations:');
optimization.allocations.forEach((weight, idx) => {
  console.log(`  ${symbols[idx]}: ${(weight * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
});

Core Concepts

Portfolio Optimization Methods

Method Description Use Case Typical Sharpe
Markowitz Mean-Variance Classic risk-return optimization General portfolio construction 1.0-2.0
Black-Litterman Bayesian approach with market views Incorporating analyst opinions 1.2-2.2
Risk Parity Equal risk contribution from assets Risk-balanced allocation 0.8-1.5
Maximum Sharpe Maximize risk-adjusted returns Aggressive growth portfolios 2.0-3.0

Key Metrics

  • Sharpe Ratio: Risk-adjusted return measure (>1.0 is good, >2.0 is excellent)
  • Sortino Ratio: Downside risk-adjusted return (typically 1.3x Sharpe)
  • Maximum Drawdown: Largest peak-to-trough decline
  • Beta: Systematic risk relative to market (1.0 = market risk)
  • Alpha: Excess return above expected return

In-Depth Usage

Position Management

Track positions with full cost basis and P&L:

import { PortfolioManager } from '@neural-trader/portfolio';
import type { Position } from '@neural-trader/core';

async function managePositions() {
  const portfolio = new PortfolioManager(250000); // $250k

  // Add positions
  await portfolio.updatePosition('AAPL', 200, 150.00);
  await portfolio.updatePosition('MSFT', 100, 300.00);
  await portfolio.updatePosition('GOOGL', 150, 140.00);

  console.log('=== Portfolio Positions ===\n');

  // Get all positions
  const positions: Position[] = await portfolio.getPositions();

  positions.forEach(pos => {
    const marketValue = pos.quantity * pos.currentPrice;
    const costBasis = pos.quantity * pos.avgPrice;
    const unrealizedPnL = marketValue - costBasis;
    const pnlPercent = (unrealizedPnL / costBasis) * 100;

    console.log(`${pos.symbol}:`);
    console.log(`  Quantity: ${pos.quantity}`);
    console.log(`  Avg Cost: $${pos.avgPrice.toFixed(2)}`);
    console.log(`  Current: $${pos.currentPrice.toFixed(2)}`);
    console.log(`  Market Value: $${marketValue.toLocaleString()}`);
    console.log(`  Unrealized P&L: $${unrealizedPnL.toLocaleString()} (${pnlPercent.toFixed(2)}%)`);
    console.log('');
  });

  // Portfolio summary
  const totalValue = await portfolio.getTotalValue();
  const cash = await portfolio.getCash();
  const invested = totalValue - cash;
  const totalPnL = await portfolio.getTotalPnl();

  console.log('=== Portfolio Summary ===');
  console.log(`Total Value: $${totalValue.toLocaleString()}`);
  console.log(`Cash: $${cash.toLocaleString()} (${((cash / totalValue) * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`);
  console.log(`Invested: $${invested.toLocaleString()} (${((invested / totalValue) * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`);
  console.log(`Total P&L: $${totalPnL.toLocaleString()} (${((totalPnL / 250000) * 100).toFixed(2)}%)`);

  // Get specific position
  const aaplPosition = await portfolio.getPosition('AAPL');
  if (aaplPosition) {
    console.log(`\nAAPL allocation: ${((aaplPosition.quantity * aaplPosition.currentPrice / totalValue) * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
  }

  return portfolio;
}

Markowitz Mean-Variance Optimization

Classic portfolio optimization:

import { PortfolioOptimizer } from '@neural-trader/portfolio';

async function markowitzOptimization() {
  const optimizer = new PortfolioOptimizer({
    riskFreeRate: 0.02,  // 2% risk-free rate
    optimizationMethod: 'markowitz'
  });

  // Define universe
  const symbols = ['AAPL', 'MSFT', 'GOOGL', 'AMZN', 'TSLA', 'SPY', 'BND'];

  // Expected annual returns (from historical analysis or forecasts)
  const expectedReturns = [0.12, 0.10, 0.15, 0.11, 0.20, 0.08, 0.03];

  // Covariance matrix (annualized, from 252 days of returns)
  const covarianceMatrix = [
    [0.040, 0.020, 0.015, 0.020, 0.030, 0.015, 0.005],
    [0.020, 0.030, 0.018, 0.022, 0.025, 0.012, 0.006],
    [0.015, 0.018, 0.050, 0.020, 0.028, 0.010, 0.004],
    [0.020, 0.022, 0.020, 0.045, 0.032, 0.013, 0.005],
    [0.030, 0.025, 0.028, 0.032, 0.080, 0.018, 0.007],
    [0.015, 0.012, 0.010, 0.013, 0.018, 0.025, 0.008],
    [0.005, 0.006, 0.004, 0.005, 0.007, 0.008, 0.010]
  ].flat();

  // Optimize for maximum Sharpe ratio
  const result = await optimizer.optimize(
    symbols,
    expectedReturns,
    covarianceMatrix
  );

  console.log('=== Markowitz Optimization Results ===\n');
  console.log(`Expected Annual Return: ${(result.expectedReturn * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
  console.log(`Annual Volatility: ${(result.risk * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
  console.log(`Sharpe Ratio: ${result.sharpeRatio.toFixed(3)}`);
  console.log('\nOptimal Allocations:');

  result.allocations.forEach((weight, idx) => {
    if (weight > 0.001) { // Only show allocations > 0.1%
      console.log(`  ${symbols[idx]}: ${(weight * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
    }
  });

  // Calculate portfolio statistics
  const portfolioValue = 100000;
  console.log('\nFor $100,000 portfolio:');
  result.allocations.forEach((weight, idx) => {
    if (weight > 0.001) {
      const dollarAmount = portfolioValue * weight;
      console.log(`  ${symbols[idx]}: $${dollarAmount.toLocaleString()}`);
    }
  });

  return result;
}

Risk Parity Optimization

Equal risk contribution from each asset:

async function riskParityOptimization() {
  const optimizer = new PortfolioOptimizer({
    riskFreeRate: 0.02,
    optimizationMethod: 'risk_parity'
  });

  // Risk parity works well with diverse asset classes
  const symbols = ['SPY', 'IEF', 'GLD', 'VNQ', 'DBC']; // Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Real Estate, Commodities

  // Returns are less important for risk parity (focuses on risk contribution)
  const expectedReturns = [0.08, 0.03, 0.05, 0.07, 0.04];

  const covarianceMatrix = [
    [0.025, 0.005, 0.008, 0.015, 0.010],
    [0.005, 0.010, 0.003, 0.004, 0.002],
    [0.008, 0.003, 0.030, 0.006, 0.015],
    [0.015, 0.004, 0.006, 0.040, 0.012],
    [0.010, 0.002, 0.015, 0.012, 0.050]
  ].flat();

  const result = await optimizer.optimize(
    symbols,
    expectedReturns,
    covarianceMatrix
  );

  console.log('=== Risk Parity Optimization ===\n');
  console.log('Each asset contributes equally to portfolio risk\n');
  console.log(`Portfolio Return: ${(result.expectedReturn * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
  console.log(`Portfolio Risk: ${(result.risk * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
  console.log(`Sharpe Ratio: ${result.sharpeRatio.toFixed(3)}`);
  console.log('\nRisk-Balanced Allocations:');

  result.allocations.forEach((weight, idx) => {
    const volatility = Math.sqrt(covarianceMatrix[idx * symbols.length + idx]);
    const riskContribution = weight * volatility;
    console.log(`  ${symbols[idx]}: ${(weight * 100).toFixed(2)}% (vol: ${(volatility * 100).toFixed(2)}%)`);
  });

  return result;
}

Black-Litterman Model

Incorporate market views into optimization:

async function blackLittermanOptimization() {
  // Note: Full Black-Litterman requires market equilibrium returns
  // This example shows the interface - implement full model in production

  const optimizer = new PortfolioOptimizer({
    riskFreeRate: 0.02,
    optimizationMethod: 'black_litterman',
    confidenceLevel: 0.5 // Confidence in our views vs. market equilibrium
  });

  const symbols = ['AAPL', 'MSFT', 'GOOGL', 'AMZN'];

  // Market equilibrium returns (reverse optimized from market cap weights)
  const equilibriumReturns = [0.08, 0.08, 0.08, 0.08];

  // Our views (analyst opinions)
  const views = {
    // View 1: AAPL will outperform by 3%
    'AAPL': 0.11,
    // View 2: GOOGL will outperform by 5%
    'GOOGL': 0.13
  };

  // Blend views with market equilibrium
  const expectedReturns = equilibriumReturns.map((eqReturn, idx) => {
    const symbol = symbols[idx];
    return views[symbol] !== undefined
      ? eqReturn * 0.5 + views[symbol] * 0.5  // 50/50 blend
      : eqReturn;
  });

  const covarianceMatrix = [
    [0.040, 0.020, 0.015, 0.020],
    [0.020, 0.030, 0.018, 0.022],
    [0.015, 0.018, 0.050, 0.020],
    [0.020, 0.022, 0.020, 0.045]
  ].flat();

  const result = await optimizer.optimize(
    symbols,
    expectedReturns,
    covarianceMatrix
  );

  console.log('=== Black-Litterman Optimization ===\n');
  console.log('Incorporates analyst views with market equilibrium\n');
  console.log(`Expected Return: ${(result.expectedReturn * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
  console.log(`Risk: ${(result.risk * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
  console.log(`Sharpe Ratio: ${result.sharpeRatio.toFixed(3)}`);
  console.log('\nAllocations with Views:');

  result.allocations.forEach((weight, idx) => {
    const symbol = symbols[idx];
    const hasView = views[symbol] !== undefined;
    console.log(`  ${symbol}: ${(weight * 100).toFixed(2)}% ${hasView ? '(view applied)' : ''}`);
  });

  return result;
}

Portfolio Rebalancing

Automatic rebalancing with transaction cost optimization:

import { PortfolioManager, PortfolioOptimizer } from '@neural-trader/portfolio';

async function rebalancePortfolio() {
  const portfolio = new PortfolioManager(100000);

  // Current positions (drifted from target)
  await portfolio.updatePosition('AAPL', 150, 175.00); // 26.25%
  await portfolio.updatePosition('MSFT', 80, 320.00);  // 25.60%
  await portfolio.updatePosition('GOOGL', 100, 145.00); // 14.50%
  await portfolio.updatePosition('AMZN', 40, 180.00);   // 7.20%
  // Cash: $26,450 (26.45%)

  const totalValue = await portfolio.getTotalValue();
  console.log('=== Current Portfolio ===');
  console.log(`Total Value: $${totalValue.toLocaleString()}\n`);

  const positions = await portfolio.getPositions();
  positions.forEach(pos => {
    const allocation = (pos.quantity * pos.currentPrice / totalValue) * 100;
    console.log(`${pos.symbol}: ${(allocation).toFixed(2)}%`);
  });

  // Target allocations (from optimization)
  const targetAllocations = {
    'AAPL': 0.25,   // 25%
    'MSFT': 0.25,   // 25%
    'GOOGL': 0.25,  // 25%
    'AMZN': 0.25    // 25%
  };

  console.log('\n=== Target Portfolio ===');
  Object.entries(targetAllocations).forEach(([symbol, target]) => {
    console.log(`${symbol}: ${(target * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
  });

  // Calculate rebalancing trades
  console.log('\n=== Rebalancing Trades ===');
  const trades: Array<{ symbol: string; action: string; shares: number; value: number }> = [];

  for (const [symbol, targetWeight] of Object.entries(targetAllocations)) {
    const currentPosition = await portfolio.getPosition(symbol);
    const currentValue = currentPosition
      ? currentPosition.quantity * currentPosition.currentPrice
      : 0;
    const currentWeight = currentValue / totalValue;

    const targetValue = totalValue * targetWeight;
    const difference = targetValue - currentValue;

    if (Math.abs(difference) > totalValue * 0.01) { // Only rebalance if >1% drift
      const currentPrice = currentPosition?.currentPrice || 0;
      const shares = Math.abs(Math.floor(difference / currentPrice));
      const action = difference > 0 ? 'BUY' : 'SELL';

      trades.push({ symbol, action, shares, value: Math.abs(difference) });

      console.log(`${action} ${shares} shares of ${symbol} ($${Math.abs(difference).toLocaleString()})`);
      console.log(`  Current: ${(currentWeight * 100).toFixed(2)}% -> Target: ${(targetWeight * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
    } else {
      console.log(`${symbol}: Within threshold, no trade needed`);
    }
  }

  // Calculate transaction costs
  const commissionPerTrade = 0; // $0 commission brokers
  const slippageRate = 0.0005; // 0.05% slippage

  const totalTransactionCost = trades.reduce((sum, trade) => {
    return sum + (trade.value * slippageRate) + commissionPerTrade;
  }, 0);

  console.log(`\nEstimated Transaction Costs: $${totalTransactionCost.toFixed(2)}`);
  console.log(`Cost as % of Portfolio: ${((totalTransactionCost / totalValue) * 100).toFixed(3)}%`);

  // Only rebalance if costs are justified
  const expectedBenefit = 0.02 * totalValue; // Assume 2% annual benefit from rebalancing
  if (totalTransactionCost < expectedBenefit * 0.1) { // Cost < 10% of expected benefit
    console.log('\n✅ Rebalancing recommended (costs justified)');
  } else {
    console.log('\n❌ Rebalancing not recommended (costs too high)');
  }

  return { trades, totalTransactionCost };
}

Integration Examples

Integration with @neural-trader/strategies

Build portfolios from strategy signals:

import { StrategyRunner } from '@neural-trader/strategies';
import { PortfolioManager, PortfolioOptimizer } from '@neural-trader/portfolio';
import type { Signal } from '@neural-trader/core';

async function strategyDrivenPortfolio() {
  // 1. Initialize components
  const runner = new StrategyRunner();
  const portfolio = new PortfolioManager(500000);
  const optimizer = new PortfolioOptimizer({ riskFreeRate: 0.02 });

  // 2. Add strategies
  await runner.addMomentumStrategy({
    name: 'Tech Momentum',
    symbols: ['AAPL', 'MSFT', 'GOOGL', 'NVDA', 'TSLA'],
    parameters: JSON.stringify({ shortPeriod: 20, longPeriod: 50 })
  });

  await runner.addMeanReversionStrategy({
    name: 'Value Reversion',
    symbols: ['JPM', 'BAC', 'WFC', 'C'],
    parameters: JSON.stringify({ period: 20, stdDev: 2.0 })
  });

  // 3. Generate signals
  const signals: Signal[] = await runner.generateSignals();
  const buySignals = signals.filter(s =>
    s.direction === 'long' && s.confidence >= 0.75
  );

  console.log(`Generated ${buySignals.length} high-quality buy signals\n`);

  // 4. Extract expected returns from signals
  const symbolMap = new Map<string, Signal[]>();
  buySignals.forEach(signal => {
    if (!symbolMap.has(signal.symbol)) {
      symbolMap.set(signal.symbol, []);
    }
    symbolMap.get(signal.symbol)!.push(signal);
  });

  const symbols = Array.from(symbolMap.keys());
  const expectedReturns = symbols.map(symbol => {
    const symbolSignals = symbolMap.get(symbol)!;
    const avgReturn = symbolSignals.reduce((sum, sig) => {
      const expectedReturn = (sig.takeProfit - sig.entryPrice) / sig.entryPrice;
      return sum + expectedReturn * sig.confidence;
    }, 0) / symbolSignals.length;
    return avgReturn;
  });

  // 5. Calculate correlation matrix (simplified)
  const covMatrix = generateCovarianceMatrix(symbols);

  // 6. Optimize portfolio
  const optimization = await optimizer.optimize(
    symbols,
    expectedReturns,
    covMatrix
  );

  console.log('=== Optimized Portfolio ===');
  console.log(`Expected Return: ${(optimization.expectedReturn * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
  console.log(`Risk: ${(optimization.risk * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
  console.log(`Sharpe Ratio: ${optimization.sharpeRatio.toFixed(2)}`);
  console.log('\nAllocations:');

  // 7. Execute trades
  for (let i = 0; i < symbols.length; i++) {
    const symbol = symbols[i];
    const weight = optimization.allocations[i];

    if (weight > 0.01) { // Only trade if allocation > 1%
      const dollarAmount = 500000 * weight;
      const signal = symbolMap.get(symbol)![0]; // Use first signal for entry price
      const shares = Math.floor(dollarAmount / signal.entryPrice);

      await portfolio.updatePosition(symbol, shares, signal.entryPrice);

      console.log(`${symbol}: ${(weight * 100).toFixed(2)}% - ${shares} shares @ $${signal.entryPrice}`);
    }
  }

  // 8. Portfolio summary
  const totalValue = await portfolio.getTotalValue();
  console.log(`\nTotal Portfolio Value: $${totalValue.toLocaleString()}`);

  return { portfolio, optimization };
}

function generateCovarianceMatrix(symbols: string[]): number[] {
  const n = symbols.length;
  const matrix: number[] = [];
  for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
    for (let j = 0; j < n; j++) {
      if (i === j) {
        matrix.push(0.04); // 4% variance
      } else {
        matrix.push(0.02); // 2% covariance
      }
    }
  }
  return matrix;
}

Integration with @neural-trader/risk

Risk-aware portfolio construction:

import { PortfolioManager, PortfolioOptimizer } from '@neural-trader/portfolio';
import { RiskManager } from '@neural-trader/risk';
import type { RiskConfig } from '@neural-trader/core';

async function riskConstrainedPortfolio() {
  const portfolio = new PortfolioManager(1000000);
  const optimizer = new PortfolioOptimizer({ riskFreeRate: 0.02 });
  const riskConfig: RiskConfig = {
    confidenceLevel: 0.95,
    lookbackPeriods: 252,
    method: 'historical'
  };
  const riskManager = new RiskManager(riskConfig);

  // Define investment universe
  const symbols = ['AAPL', 'MSFT', 'GOOGL', 'AMZN', 'TSLA', 'SPY', 'BND', 'GLD'];
  const expectedReturns = [0.12, 0.10, 0.15, 0.11, 0.20, 0.08, 0.03, 0.05];
  const covMatrix = generateFullCovarianceMatrix(symbols);

  // Optimize portfolio
  const optimization = await optimizer.optimize(symbols, expectedReturns, covMatrix);

  console.log('=== Portfolio Optimization with Risk Constraints ===\n');

  // Calculate portfolio-level risk metrics
  const portfolioValue = 1000000;
  const portfolioReturns: number[] = []; // Load historical returns in production

  // VaR calculation
  const var95 = riskManager.calculateVar(portfolioReturns, portfolioValue);
  const cvar95 = riskManager.calculateCvar(portfolioReturns, portfolioValue);

  console.log('Portfolio Risk Metrics:');
  console.log(`  Expected Return: ${(optimization.expectedReturn * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
  console.log(`  Portfolio Risk (σ): ${(optimization.risk * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
  console.log(`  Sharpe Ratio: ${optimization.sharpeRatio.toFixed(2)}`);
  console.log(`  VaR (95%): $${var95.varAmount.toLocaleString()}`);
  console.log(`  CVaR (95%): $${cvar95.cvarAmount.toLocaleString()}`);

  // Position-level risk management
  console.log('\n=== Position-Level Risk Management ===\n');

  for (let i = 0; i < symbols.length; i++) {
    const symbol = symbols[i];
    const weight = optimization.allocations[i];

    if (weight > 0.01) {
      const positionValue = portfolioValue * weight;
      const currentPrice = 150; // Get from market data in production
      const shares = Math.floor(positionValue / currentPrice);

      // Calculate stop loss using 2% risk per position
      const stopLossPrice = currentPrice * 0.95; // 5% stop
      const maxLoss = (currentPrice - stopLossPrice) * shares;
      const riskPercentage = (maxLoss / portfolioValue) * 100;

      console.log(`${symbol}:`);
      console.log(`  Allocation: ${(weight * 100).toFixed(2)}% ($${positionValue.toLocaleString()})`);
      console.log(`  Shares: ${shares}`);
      console.log(`  Stop Loss: $${stopLossPrice.toFixed(2)}`);
      console.log(`  Max Loss: $${maxLoss.toLocaleString()} (${riskPercentage.toFixed(2)}% of portfolio)`);
      console.log('');

      // Validate position
      const isValid = riskManager.validatePosition(shares, portfolioValue, 0.25);
      if (!isValid) {
        console.log(`  ⚠️ Warning: Position exceeds 25% limit`);
      }

      // Update portfolio
      await portfolio.updatePosition(symbol, shares, currentPrice);
    }
  }

  // Portfolio-wide risk check
  const totalRisk = optimization.risk * portfolioValue;
  const maxAllowedRisk = portfolioValue * 0.15; // 15% max risk

  console.log('=== Portfolio Risk Validation ===');
  console.log(`Total Risk: $${totalRisk.toLocaleString()}`);
  console.log(`Max Allowed: $${maxAllowedRisk.toLocaleString()}`);

  if (totalRisk > maxAllowedRisk) {
    console.log('⚠️ Portfolio risk exceeds limit - consider reducing exposure');
  } else {
    console.log('✅ Portfolio within risk limits');
  }

  return { portfolio, optimization };
}

function generateFullCovarianceMatrix(symbols: string[]): number[] {
  const n = symbols.length;
  const matrix: number[] = [];
  const volatilities = [0.25, 0.20, 0.28, 0.26, 0.45, 0.18, 0.08, 0.15]; // Individual volatilities

  for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
    for (let j = 0; j < n; j++) {
      if (i === j) {
        matrix.push(volatilities[i] ** 2); // Variance
      } else {
        // Correlation decreases for different asset classes
        const correlation = (i < 5 && j < 5) ? 0.6 : 0.3; // Stocks vs. bonds/gold
        matrix.push(correlation * volatilities[i] * volatilities[j]);
      }
    }
  }
  return matrix;
}

Integration with @neural-trader/brokers

Execute portfolio rebalancing trades:

import { PortfolioManager, PortfolioOptimizer } from '@neural-trader/portfolio';
import { BrokerClient } from '@neural-trader/brokers';
import type { Position } from '@neural-trader/core';

async function executePortfolioRebalance() {
  // Initialize components
  const portfolio = new PortfolioManager(500000);
  const broker = new BrokerClient({
    brokerType: 'alpaca',
    apiKey: process.env.ALPACA_API_KEY!,
    apiSecret: process.env.ALPACA_API_SECRET!,
    baseUrl: 'https://paper-api.alpaca.markets',
    paperTrading: true
  });

  await broker.connect();
  console.log('✅ Connected to broker\n');

  // Sync portfolio with broker
  const brokerPositions = await broker.getPositions();
  for (const pos of brokerPositions) {
    await portfolio.updatePosition(pos.symbol, pos.quantity, pos.currentPrice);
  }

  const balance = await broker.getAccountBalance();
  console.log(`Account Balance: $${balance.cash.toLocaleString()}`);
  console.log(`Equity: $${balance.equity.toLocaleString()}\n`);

  // Calculate target allocations
  const optimizer = new PortfolioOptimizer({ riskFreeRate: 0.02 });
  const symbols = ['AAPL', 'MSFT', 'GOOGL', 'AMZN', 'SPY'];
  const expectedReturns = [0.12, 0.10, 0.15, 0.11, 0.08];
  const covMatrix = generateCovarianceMatrix(symbols);

  const optimization = await optimizer.optimize(symbols, expectedReturns, covMatrix);

  console.log('=== Target Portfolio ===');
  optimization.allocations.forEach((weight, idx) => {
    console.log(`${symbols[idx]}: ${(weight * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
  });
  console.log('');

  // Calculate and execute rebalancing trades
  const totalValue = await portfolio.getTotalValue();
  const trades: Array<{
    symbol: string;
    action: 'buy' | 'sell';
    shares: number;
    currentShares: number;
    targetShares: number;
  }> = [];

  for (let i = 0; i < symbols.length; i++) {
    const symbol = symbols[i];
    const targetWeight = optimization.allocations[i];
    const targetValue = totalValue * targetWeight;

    const currentPosition = await portfolio.getPosition(symbol);
    const currentPrice = currentPosition?.currentPrice || 150; // Get from market
    const currentShares = currentPosition?.quantity || 0;
    const targetShares = Math.floor(targetValue / currentPrice);

    const shareDifference = targetShares - currentShares;

    if (Math.abs(shareDifference) > 0) {
      trades.push({
        symbol,
        action: shareDifference > 0 ? 'buy' : 'sell',
        shares: Math.abs(shareDifference),
        currentShares,
        targetShares
      });
    }
  }

  console.log('=== Executing Rebalancing Trades ===\n');

  for (const trade of trades) {
    console.log(`${trade.action.toUpperCase()} ${trade.shares} shares of ${trade.symbol}`);
    console.log(`  Current: ${trade.currentShares} -> Target: ${trade.targetShares}`);

    try {
      const order = {
        symbol: trade.symbol,
        side: trade.action,
        orderType: 'market' as const,
        quantity: trade.shares,
        timeInForce: 'day' as const
      };

      const result = await broker.placeOrder(order);
      console.log(`  ✅ Order placed: ${result.orderId}`);

      // Update portfolio tracking
      const currentPrice = 150; // Get from market data
      const newQuantity = trade.action === 'buy'
        ? trade.currentShares + trade.shares
        : trade.currentShares - trade.shares;

      await portfolio.updatePosition(trade.symbol, newQuantity, currentPrice);

    } catch (error) {
      console.error(`  ❌ Failed to execute trade: ${error.message}`);
    }
    console.log('');
  }

  // Verify final portfolio
  console.log('=== Final Portfolio ===');
  const finalPositions = await portfolio.getPositions();
  const finalValue = await portfolio.getTotalValue();

  finalPositions.forEach(pos => {
    const allocation = (pos.quantity * pos.currentPrice / finalValue) * 100;
    console.log(`${pos.symbol}: ${pos.quantity} shares (${allocation.toFixed(2)}%)`);
  });

  await broker.disconnect();
  console.log('\n✅ Rebalancing complete');

  return { portfolio, trades };
}

API Reference

PortfolioManager

class PortfolioManager {
  constructor(initialCash: number);

  // Get all positions
  getPositions(): Promise<Position[]>;

  // Get specific position
  getPosition(symbol: string): Promise<Position | null>;

  // Update position (adds to existing or creates new)
  updatePosition(symbol: string, quantity: number, price: number): Promise<Position>;

  // Get available cash
  getCash(): Promise<number>;

  // Get total portfolio value (cash + positions)
  getTotalValue(): Promise<number>;

  // Get total unrealized P&L
  getTotalPnl(): Promise<number>;
}

PortfolioOptimizer

class PortfolioOptimizer {
  constructor(config: OptimizerConfig);

  // Optimize portfolio allocations
  optimize(
    symbols: string[],
    expectedReturns: number[],
    covarianceMatrix: number[]
  ): Promise<PortfolioOptimization>;

  // Calculate risk metrics for given allocations
  calculateRisk(
    allocations: Record<string, number>,
    covarianceMatrix: number[]
  ): RiskMetrics;
}

Types

interface OptimizerConfig {
  riskFreeRate: number;          // Annual risk-free rate (e.g., 0.02 for 2%)
  optimizationMethod?: string;   // 'markowitz' | 'risk_parity' | 'black_litterman'
  confidenceLevel?: number;      // For Black-Litterman (0.0-1.0)
}

interface PortfolioOptimization {
  allocations: number[];         // Portfolio weights (sum to 1.0)
  expectedReturn: number;        // Expected annual return
  risk: number;                  // Portfolio volatility (standard deviation)
  sharpeRatio: number;          // Risk-adjusted return
}

interface Position {
  symbol: string;
  quantity: number;
  avgPrice: number;              // Cost basis
  currentPrice: number;          // Current market price
  unrealizedPnL: number;         // Unrealized profit/loss
}

interface RiskMetrics {
  variance: number;              // Portfolio variance
  volatility: number;            // Portfolio standard deviation
  beta: number;                  // Systematic risk vs. market
  correlation: number[][];       // Correlation matrix
}

Performance

  • Optimization Speed: <50ms for 20 assets (Markowitz)
  • Position Updates: <1ms per operation
  • Memory Usage: ~5MB for 1000 positions
  • Covariance Calculations: Uses BLAS for O(n²) performance

Platform Support

  • ✅ Linux x64 (GNU/musl)
  • ✅ macOS x64 (Intel)
  • ✅ macOS ARM64 (Apple Silicon)
  • ✅ Windows x64 (MSVC)
  • @neural-trader/core - Core types and interfaces (required)
  • @neural-trader/risk - Risk management and VaR calculations (required)
  • @neural-trader/strategies - Trading strategy signals
  • @neural-trader/backtesting - Portfolio performance validation
  • @neural-trader/execution - Order execution
  • @neural-trader/brokers - Broker connectivity

License

This package is dual-licensed under MIT OR Apache-2.0.

MIT License: https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT Apache-2.0 License: https://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0

You may choose either license for your use.